Analysts maintain confidence in MOP 21bn GGR projection despite temporary weather disruption
Typhoon Wipha Impacts Visitor Flow and Casino Revenue
Macau’s gaming sector recorded a modest slowdown in mid-July 2025, attributed largely to the disruptive effects of Typhoon Wipha, which temporarily reduced travel and tourism activities in the region. According to data sourced by Macao Daily, average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined by approximately 3% week-on-week, falling from MOP 679 million to MOP 657 million (approximately US$81.5 million) in the seven days ending 20 July.
While the typhoon’s impact was notable, the average daily GGR still outpaced the MOP 600 million average recorded in July 2024, showcasing a year-on-year improvement and underlining the underlying resilience of Macau’s gaming industry.
Full-Month Projections Remain Optimistic
Despite the mid-month dip, analysts at Citi have reaffirmed their projection of MOP 21 billion in total GGR for July 2025. If achieved, this would represent about 86% of pre-pandemic July 2019 levels and a 13% increase over July 2024, reflecting a solid recovery trajectory fueled by both mass market and VIP segments.
UBS provided a slightly more optimistic snapshot, estimating MOP 683 million in average daily GGR so far in July, which implies a 14% year-on-year rise, albeit 3% below June’s average.
Segment Breakdown: VIP vs Mass Market
The report highlighted nuanced dynamics between key gaming segments:
VIP turnover saw a 3–5% decline month-on-month, suggesting a cautious return among high rollers.
Mass market gaming revenue dropped slightly less, down 2–4%, but benefitted from stronger hold rates.
Notably, higher-than-usual VIP win rates partially offset the lower volume, preserving GGR performance.
Entertainment Tourism and Recovery Outlook
Market analysts believe that concert tourism and entertainment events scheduled for late July will help drive footfall and daily casino revenue, particularly in the mass segment. Macau’s tourism bureau has actively promoted non-gaming attractions to diversify revenue sources and draw in regional visitors from mainland China and Southeast Asia.
The city’s ongoing recovery is being propelled by a combination of factors:
Stable mass gaming trends
Improved VIP win margins
A growing pipeline of entertainment-driven visitation
Conclusion: Short-Term Blip, Long-Term Strength
While Typhoon Wipha temporarily disrupted Macau’s tourism-driven economy, the island’s gaming sector appears well-positioned to hit its July targets. With analysts holding steady on their projections and data continuing to beat market expectations, Macau’s gaming industry is demonstrating a measured but resilient recovery. Continued momentum in the entertainment sector and enhanced regulatory clarity will be key in pushing GGR closer to pre-pandemic benchmarks in the second half of 2025.
