Post-pandemic momentum, rising tourism, and economic recovery fuel cautious optimism for 2025
Macau’s gaming sector has reacted with cautious optimism to the government’s revised gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for 2025, which has been set at MOP 228 billion (approximately $28.2 billion). Industry stakeholders believe this projection may underestimate the sector’s true potential, especially given the strong performance in the first half of the year and favorable conditions expected in the months ahead.
First-Half Revenue Already Exceeds Monthly Targets
According to official data, Macau’s GGR between January and May totaled MOP 97.7 billion, averaging MOP 19.54 billion per month. This monthly figure already surpasses the government’s full-year projection baseline of MOP 19 billion. May alone recorded an impressive MOP 21.19 billion in revenue—the highest since the pandemic—reaching approximately 82% of May 2019 levels.
If June GGR reaches Citi’s forecast of MOP 18.5 billion, the first-half total would climb to MOP 115.7 billion. That would leave MOP 112.3 billion to be generated in the second half to meet the government’s forecast—a target industry insiders say is achievable, even with slight seasonal declines.
Tourism to Drive Second-Half Growth
Gaming operators remain confident that the second half of 2025 will receive a strong boost from seasonal tourism. Key holiday periods such as the summer school break, National Day Golden Week, and the Christmas season are expected to drive increased visitor numbers, even if per capita spending continues to trend downward.
Industry analysts suggest that a modest 3% to 5% year-on-year revenue increase in the latter half is realistic, especially as external conditions continue to improve.
Macroeconomic Indicators Turning Favorable
There are also promising signs on the broader economic front. Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the property and equity markets appear to be bolstering consumer sentiment. A stronger renminbi and relaxed travel restrictions are encouraging more mainland Chinese tourists to return to Macau—an essential driver of casino footfall.
While operators acknowledge the pressure of falling average spend per visitor, the volume of tourists is helping offset this decline. The gradual return of VIP players and a resurgence in premium mass-market gaming also present opportunities for higher-margin growth.
A Cautiously Upbeat Outlook
Although the government’s revised GGR target may appear conservative, the broader market view leans toward optimism. With structural improvements, steady tourism recovery, and enhanced visitor experiences, Macau’s gaming sector appears poised to surpass official forecasts—provided that macroeconomic stability continues and policy support remains in place.
As Macau continues its journey beyond pandemic recovery, the industry’s resilience, combined with strategic adaptations, could make 2025 another milestone year for Asia’s gaming capital.
