Stronger tourism, targeted marketing and resilient premium play drive upward revisions for 2025–2027, though revenues remain below pre-pandemic highs.
Macau’s casino sector is on track for a stronger rebound than previously anticipated, with several major investment banks upgrading their outlook for the gaming hub’s recovery. According to reporting by Macao Daily, the revisions come on the back of better-than-expected gaming revenue in the second half of the year, buoyed by improved tourism offerings, enhanced marketing efforts, and a more diverse customer base.
In its latest assessment, UBS announced a modest but meaningful upward adjustment to its forecast for Macau’s full-year gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025. The bank now expects GGR to grow by 9% year-on-year, revising its earlier estimate upward by slightly under 1%. Although this marks continued recovery momentum, Macau’s projected 2025 revenue still sits 16% below 2019 levels, underscoring the gradual pace of the region’s post-pandemic climb.
UBS also issued updated projections for the following years. For 2026, the bank forecasts a 6% year-on-year increase in GGR, which would still leave the market 11% short of pre-pandemic benchmarks. Meanwhile, the 2027 outlook was raised by 2%, with UBS expecting 4% annual growth, though the figure would remain 7% below 2019 performance.
The bank highlighted that operators with strong high-end offerings are well-positioned to outperform the broader market. As reinvestment moderates and premium-segment activity continues to demonstrate resilience, luxury-focused operators may capture faster gains.
Breakdowns by segment show UBS expects continued mass-market growth, projecting a 7% rise in 2025, followed by 6% growth in 2026 and another 4% increase in 2027. VIP revenue estimates were slightly adjusted: the 2025 forecast was lowered by 1% to a robust 22% annual jump, while 2026 expectations remained unchanged at 6% growth, and 2027 projections were lifted by 1% to a 4% increase.
On the Hong Kong stock exchange, casino operators experienced mixed trading sessions. Galaxy Entertainment was the lone major gainer, rising 0.7% to HK$40.06 (US$5.13). Others declined: Sands China fell 1.6% to HK$21.06, MGM China inched down 0.06% to HK$16.74, Wynn Macau slipped 1.1% to HK$6.34, Melco International dropped 1.44% to HK$4.79, and SJM Holdings decreased 1.9% to HK$2.57.
Analysts and government officials remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to the continued rollout of diversified tourism products and the persistent strength of premium play. Together, these factors are expected to sustain Macau’s recovery trajectory in the coming years.
