Daily Revenue Climbs in Mid-May
Macau’s gaming sector showed renewed signs of resilience as average daily revenue for the week of May 12–18 rose to MOP593 million, marking a 3% increase from the previous week. The data, cited in reports by Macao Daily and based on investment bank estimates, underscores seasonal trends and ongoing recovery in Asia’s gambling capital.
The upward movement in weekly performance reinforces expectations for monthly growth, driven by both steady visitor volume and consistent high-roller activity. Industry watchers had anticipated a moderate uptick in May, aligning with improving post-pandemic travel trends and stabilized mainland Chinese visitation.
May’s GGR on Track for Year-on-Year Growth
Citigroup estimates that gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau reached MOP127 billion in the first 18 days of May. The bank is holding its full-month forecast at MOP210 billion, representing a 4% increase compared to May 2023. This would also bring the figure to approximately 81% of May 2019 levels — a significant milestone as Macau continues its post-COVID recovery.
J.P. Morgan shared a similar outlook, noting that daily GGR in the latest reporting week fluctuated between MOP580 million and MOP620 million. Based on this range, the investment bank projects May’s total GGR to settle between MOP200 billion and MOP210 billion, confirming a stable or slightly positive year-over-year trend.
Looking beyond May, both banks suggest that second-quarter GGR could grow between 2% and 3% compared to the same period last year. April’s strong showing and May’s steady performance are key contributors to this cautious optimism.
Stock Market Reaction: Fundamentals vs. Sentiment
Despite these favorable fundamentals, investor sentiment remains subdued. On Monday, major Hong Kong-listed casino operators saw their stock prices dip, even as operational data remained strong. Galaxy Entertainment dropped 1.7% to HK$31.55, Sands China fell 2.2% to HK$15.14, and Melco International experienced the sharpest decline at 3.24%, closing at HK$3.58.
Wynn Macau and SJM Holdings also faced losses, slipping 0.74% and 1.71% respectively. Analysts attribute the decline not to sector-specific weakness, but rather to broader macroeconomic concerns that continue to weigh on investor confidence across Asian markets.
Outlook: Growth Amid Uncertainty
While the gaming sector in Macau is showing clear signs of recovery, particularly in revenue performance and visitation patterns, capital markets remain cautious. The disconnect between operational success and stock performance suggests that external factors, such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and China’s uneven economic recovery, dominate investor behavior.
Nevertheless, with consistent month-on-month improvement and sustained year-on-year growth, Macau’s gaming industry appears to be on a steady path forward, even if market sentiment has yet to catch up fully.
